This Week in Strategy: If your guy doesn't appreciate fresh fruit puns, let that mango!
Hi Strat Pack,
Happy Passover! Happy Easter! Let's start off with two minutes of educational content. I came across this delightful video of Carl Sagan Explaining How the Ancient Greeks Knew the Earth was Round and Calculated its Circumference over 2,000 Years ago and I really highly recommend giving it a watch. I love thinking about the ingenuity humanity has shown time and time again when trying to solve the fundamental questions of the world we live in. Like - seriously, imagine the raw mental horsepower it took to not just figure out that Earth is not the the center of the solar system, but also to figure out what IS the center and come up with the mathematical equation to fit the data. My mind hurts. But even more recent knowledge can be lost to time. For example I was watching a YouTube video about the Apollo rocket engines that put man on the moon the other day and learned that these things were basically built by hand and developed by trial and error. And we can't actually manufacture those engines from 50 years ago anymore because that skill set and knowledge has disappeared in the world of computer modeling and automation. That's crazy!
On a lighter note, please check out Cribs: Newscaster Edition from the Daily Show. “I’m feeling strong divorced-guy energy here.” Dulce Sloan roasts newscasters working from home. I almost put this in the department of great work, but it's too good and I know half of you don't read that far down. If there's only one link you click on this week, it should be this one.
Alright, stop messing around trying to figure out what my Zoom background says about my lifestyle choices. Let's jump right in.
The one thing to read this week
1) Found: Bernbach Stuff. [Dave Dye - Stuff from the Loft]
(ED Note: I have no idea how Dave Dye finds this stuff but he is incredible at unearthing old collections like this. I'm still getting through all the material. But let's be honest, you're not going out this weekend. Give the material the time it deserves. This is great stuff.)
I’ve no idea where this came from.
I’ve had it for at least twenty or so years.
Looking at that high-class screw holding it together and thick cell cover, it probably once belonged to a Creative Director.
(Me and my friends didn’t have access to that kind of luxury at the time.)
If you recognise it, get in touch and I’ll return it.
It’s one of the best, most thorough interviews I’ve ever read with Uncle William.
So thanks and apologies.
One of my (Jordan) favorite passages is Bernbach describing the role of strategy before (I assume) anyone in the US ever heard of the job title Account Planner.
2) Chesterton’s Fence: A Lesson in Second Order Thinking [Farnam Street]
A core component of making great decisions is understanding the rationale behind previous decisions. If we don’t understand how we got “here,” we run the risk of making things much worse.
Second-order thinking is the practice of not just considering the consequences of our decisions but also the consequences of those consequences. Everyone can manage first-order thinking, which is just considering the immediate anticipated result of an action. It’s simple and quick, usually requiring little effort. By comparison, second-order thinking is more complex and time-consuming. The fact that it is difficult and unusual is what makes the ability to do it such a powerful advantage.
Second-order thinking will get you extraordinary results, and so will learning to recognize when other people are using second-order thinking. To understand exactly why this is the case, let’s consider Chesterton’s Fence, described by G. K. Chesterton himself as follows:
There exists in such a case a certain institution or law; let us say, for the sake of simplicity, a fence or gate erected across a road. The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us clear it away.” To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: “If you don’t see the use of it, I certainly won’t let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it.”
Do not remove a fence until you know why it was put up in the first place. Fences don’t grow out of the ground, nor do people build them in their sleep or during a fit of madness. He explained that fences are built by people who carefully planned them out and “had some reason for thinking [the fence] would be a good thing for somebody.” Until we establish that reason, we have no business taking an ax to it.
As simple as Chesterton’s Fence is as a principle, it teaches us an important lesson. Many of the problems we face in life occur when we intervene with systems without an awareness of what the consequences could be. We can easily forget that this applies to subtraction as much as to addition. If a fence exists, there is likely a reason for it. It may be an illogical or inconsequential reason, but it is a reason nonetheless.
The reason might not be a good or relevant one; we just need to be aware of what the reason is. Otherwise, we may end up with unintended consequences: second- and third-order effects we don’t want, spreading like ripples on a pond and causing damage for years.
Elsewhere, in his essay collection Heretics, Chesterton makes a similar point, detailed here:
Suppose that a great commotion arises in the street about something, let us say a lamp-post, which many influential persons desire to pull down. A grey-clad monk, who is the spirit of the Middle Ages, is approached upon the matter, and begins to say, in the arid manner of the Schoolmen, “Let us first of all consider, my brethren, the value of Light. If Light be in itself good—” At this point he is somewhat excusably knocked down. All the people make a rush for the lamp-post, the lamp-post is down in ten minutes, and they go about congratulating each other on their un-mediaeval practicality. But as things go on they do not work out so easily. Some people have pulled the lamp-post down because they wanted the electric light; some because they wanted old iron; some because they wanted darkness, because their deeds were evil. Some thought it not enough of a lamp-post, some too much; some acted because they wanted to smash municipal machinery; some because they wanted to smash something. And there is war in the night, no man knowing whom he strikes. So, gradually and inevitably, to-day, to-morrow, or the next day, there comes back the conviction that the monk was right after all, and that all depends on what is the philosophy of Light. Only what we might have discussed under the gas-lamp, we now must discuss in the dark.
Yes, doing things the way they’ve always been done means getting what we’ve always got. There’s certainly nothing positive about being resistant to any change. Things become out of date and redundant with time. Sometimes an outside perspective is ideal for shaking things up and finding new ways. Even so, we can’t let ourselves be too overconfident about the redundancy of things we see as pointless.
Or, to paraphrase Rory Sutherland, the peacock’s tail is not about efficiency. In fact, its whole value lies in its inefficiency. It signals a bird is healthy enough to waste energy growing it and has the strength to carry it around. Peahens use the tails of peacocks as guidance for choosing which mates are likely to have the best genes to pass on to their offspring. If an outside observer were to somehow swoop in and give peacocks regular, functional tails, it would be more energy efficient and practical, but it would deprive them of the ability to advertise their genetic potential.
Chesterton’s Fence is not an admonishment of anyone who tries to make improvements; it is a call to be aware of second-order thinking before intervening. It reminds us that we don’t always know better than those who made decisions before us, and we can’t see all the nuances to a situation until we’re intimate with it. Unless we know why someone made a decision, we can’t safely change it or conclude that they were wrong.
The first step before modifying an aspect of a system is to understand it. Observe it in full. Note how it interconnects with other aspects, including ones that might not be linked to you personally. Learn how it works, and then propose your change.
3) What Customers Need to Hear from You During the COVID Crisis [HBS Working Knowledge]
What’s the right strategy for a CMO during a crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic? During the week of March 23, 2020, Edelman conducted a survey of 12,000 consumers in 12 countries (Brazil, South Africa, Italy, France U.K., Germany, South Korea, Canada, China, U.S., Japan, and India) which were all in the midst of battling the novel coronavirus’s surge across the globe, to understand how consumers are responding to brand’s marketing during the crisis and to provide guidance to CMOs for branding in crises. These survey results form the basis for our analysis and advice below.
The core expectation that consumers have of brands in any situation, but particularly in a crisis, is that brands will do what is right for their employees, suppliers, customers, and society at large, without regard for how much it costs, with 90 percent of consumers stating that brands should be willing to suffer substantial financial losses to ensure the well-being and financial security of others. Those brands that do not run the risk of alienating a wide swath of consumers; 71 percent of those surveyed promised that brands and companies that placed their profits before people during the crisis would lose their trust forever.
While trust has always been important to consumers, in times of crisis, consumers’ desire to patronize trusted brands increases, with 60 percent of consumers reporting that they were finding themselves turning toward brands that they are absolutely sure they can trust, perhaps providing a leg up to legacy brands and/or brands that have managed to nurture strong consumer-brand relationships prior to the crisis. The cocooning behavior promoted by shelter-in-place orders may encourage a return to brands that were trusted childhood favorites that could offer consumers mental transportation back to a simpler time.
The risks are large for marketers who get brand storytelling wrong during a crisis. Derogatory memes proliferated after a group of celebrities, including Gal Gadot, Jimmy Fallon, Natalie Portman, Cara Delevingne, and Will Ferrell, came together virtually to sing an inspirational version of John Lennon’s "Imagine." Instead of providing the soothing relief and entertainment the celebrities intended, the video, widely circulated on Instagram and on other social media platforms, incited anger that the celebrities seemed out of touch with people’s suffering as they quarantined in their multimillion dollar homes, and frustration that the celebrities were not using their brand platforms and influencer status to more meaningfully help those most in need. Surveyed consumers deem celebrities and social media macro-influencers to be less credible spokespeople for brands during a crisis, with most consumers favoring true expertise and expressing a desire to receive COVID-19 related brand information from a doctor or health authority, the brand’s technical experts, CEO, or founder, or a person more like themselves.
4) Quick Hits: A few articles that are concise, important, interesting, impactful, and I'm not going to write long descriptions for them.
How to Write Short and Sharp Strategy [Julian Cole - Planning Dirty] All of our writing can benefit from Slides 20 and 21. Here's a guide on how to write short and sharp strategy. It is filled with a boatload of practical tips to make your writing shine!
The flawed logic behind a lot of DTC brands [Shane O'Leary - Twitter] Looking back over my notes from @rorysutherland's brill book 'Alchemy'. This is great:zOnline shopping is a very good way for ten people to buy one thing, but it is not a good way for one person to buy ten things. Try and buy ten different things simultaneously online and it turns chaotic. Items arrive on four separate days, vans appear at your house at different times and one delivery always fails. By contrast, the great thing about Walmart, which investors tend to overlook, is that people turn up, buy 47 different things and then transport them home at their own expense . Amazon can be a very big business selling one thing to 47 people, but if it can't sell 47 things to one person, there's a ceiling to how large it can be.
‘I Just Need the Comfort’: Processed Foods Make a Pandemic Comeback [New York Times] Whether out of a desire for comfort or just for something shelf-stable, consumers have been turning toward brands such as SpaghettiOs, Campbell’s soup and Slim Jim. Some Kraft Heinz factories are working three shifts to churn out enough mac and cheese to meet demand. It could be a chance for food companies to win customers who wouldn’t have considered their products otherwise—or quit them long ago. “We stocked up on the entire Chef Boyardee line. Chef Boyardee Ravioli. Chef Boyardee Beefaroni,” Sue Smith, a writer in Los Angeles, told the Times. “I hadn’t had that stuff in 20 years.”
5) Department of Great Work
This much lead in this much pencil [Twitter] 1981 poster for Parker by CDP that turns a simple fact into something truly memorable. In Campaign’s Posters of the Century, and a great use of the Bent/Straight philosophy of design
Vintage PSAs from the past are redesigned to help spread the word on coronavirus safety [Design Boom] Many people have referred to the effort required to combat the virus as ‘war-like’. In light of this, Shawn Murenbeeld of touchwood design has created ‘repurposed with a purpose’ – a series of posters inspired by public safety announcements from the past.
friendly reminder in times of uncertainty and misinformation: anecdotes are not data. (good) data is carefully measured and collected information based on a range of subject-dependent factors, including, but not limited to, controlled variables, meta-analysis, and randomization [Steak-Ums - Twitter] A lengthy, earnest Twitter thread designed to encourage people to get their coronavirus news from trustworthy sources. Even the company seemed surprised by the tweet's success posting: “We’re a frozen meat brand posting ads inevitably made to misdirect people and generate sales, so this is peak irony”
Vogue Italia Reacts to Coronavirus Crisis With Special Edition [WWD] For the first time in the history of the glossy magazine, the April edition of Vogue Italia features a totally white cover. White is, first and foremost, respect. White is rebirth, light after the darkness, the sum of all the colors. White is the uniforms of those who have saved lives while risking their own. It’s time and space for thinking. And for staying silent too. White is for people who are filling this time and space with ideas, thoughts, stories, verses, music and kindness to others,” said Vogue Italia editor in chief Emanuele Farneti. “It’s a reminder that after the crisis in 1929, clothes turned white, a color chosen to express purity in the present and hope for the future. And above all, white is not surrender; it’s a blank page to be filled, the frontispiece of a new story about to begin.”
Department of Lift-Your-Spirits Covid-19 Works
This dog is elite [SportsCenter] I don't want to tell you how many times I've watched this. Glad to seep the folks at ESPN are keeping busy even though no sports are on TV
Japanese University Uses Robot Surrogates to Hold Graduation [NextShark] The robots, dubbed “Newme” by developer ANA Holdings, were dressed in graduation caps and gowns for the ceremony at the Business Breakthrough University in Tokyo. The robots’ “faces” were tablets that displayed the faces of the graduates, who logged on at home and controlled the robots via their laptops. One by one, the robots motored toward the podium to receive their diplomas. School staff clapped and said “congratulations!” as University President Kenichi Ohmae placed the diplomas on a rack mounted on the robot’s midsection.
6) Platform Updates
Pinterest boosts ability to ‘Shop’ for in-stock home decor and fashion products [Marketing Land] A new “Shop” tab will appear on Search and on boards to help users find in-stock products from retailers. The new feature is rolling out starting today and includes price and brand filters. The Shop tab on boards will show products from or inspired by the Pins users have saved to their home decor or fashion boards. Digital commerce features have been a key part of Pinterest’s roadmap. The company said the number of shoppable Product Pins has increased by 2.5X since last year and that traffic to retailers has risen by 2.3X in the same period. The app is also seeing higher engagement, with the number of users “engaging with shopping on Pinterest” increasing by 44% year-over-year, the company said Tuesday.
NYC forbids schools from using Zoom for remote learning due to privacy and security concerns [Chalkbeat] The platform has also caused problems for educators and has come under fire nationally for a range of security and privacy issues. In some cases, students have taken to “Zoombombing” online classes, essentially logging into online classes uninvited and hijacking everyone’s screens with inappropriate images or audio. “Zoombombing is no joke. I don’t think we were ready for that,” Pat Finley, a co-principal at the Metropolitan Expeditionary Learning School in Queens, previously said. Students have also sometimes flooded the platform’s chat function with inappropriate comments, disrupting virtual instruction.
Facebook's 'Campus' test hints at a return to its college roots [Engadget] App researcher Jane Manchun Wong has unearthed an experimental feature called “Campus,” which can be exclusively accessed by college students, when she took apart the social network’s application. You’ll need a .edu email address to access Campus, and once you’re in, you can fill out a profile with your graduation year, major, minor and dorm if you want to find your friends on it.
Foursquare Merges With Factual, Another Location-Data Provider [Wall Street Journal] Foursquare, which first gained fame for an app that allowed people to share their location with friends, pivoted in recent years to providing location data and software to businesses including marketers and ad agencies, helping them see how well their ads steered people to their stores and restaurants. Factual’s location software helps marketers home in on customer segments, for instance, people who have visited certain car dealerships in the last 30 days. Factual or Foursquare’s data is already integrated into the digital advertising platforms of companies that include Oracle Corp., Roku Inc. and The Trade Desk Inc.
As always, the full archive is available here. Was this email forwarded to you? Want to start getting this on a weekly basis? All I need is your email, everything else is optional. Thanks for sticking around as always. See you next week!